It’s been a tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, marked by a series of surprising announcements from Nintendo. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, excitement quickly turned to concern when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration’s sweeping new tariffs on global trade.
We've previously explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, when faced with such industry-related questions, I consult a panel of expert analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. I've already done this twice this week, but this time, the situation is different. For the first time since I began these interviews, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. They offered guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices, but each response was heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaos and unpredictability. This unprecedented situation has left everyone guessing about what Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders might do in the coming days, weeks, or months.
With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts I spoke with had to say:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided on the potential price increase. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he said. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting prices.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards the likelihood of price increases across the board. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he said. Piscatella also highlighted the potential for the U.S. to join regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted that hardware prices would increase, though he believes software prices might be less affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices," he explained.
Holding the Line
On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledged the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. He suggested that the $449.99 price point already accounts for potential economic challenges from trade disputes. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said. However, he noted that the unpredictable nature of tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agreed that Nintendo faces a difficult decision. He believes the company will try to maintain the announced price to avoid consumer backlash but acknowledges that everything is on the table. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. Harding-Rolls suggested that Nintendo might delay any price adjustments until 2026 if the tariffs persist, hoping for a resolution in the meantime.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets, suggesting that the company might have considered a similar approach in the U.S. but was forced into a "wait and see" mode due to the chaotic tariff situation.
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He noted that some manufacturers, including Nintendo, have been shifting production to non-tariff-impacted markets, but the unpredictability of future tariffs complicates these efforts. "We are living in...there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," he said, emphasizing the negative impact on consumers and the economy.
In conclusion, the gaming community remains on edge as they await Nintendo's next move. The unprecedented nature of the current situation has left even the most seasoned analysts uncertain about the future of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the broader gaming industry.
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