Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 will dominate next-generation console sales, even before its release. Their forecast anticipates impressive sales figures.
Dominating the Market by 2028
Image from NintendoDFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, projects the Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is expected to lead the console market, outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and relatively limited initial competition. Sales are projected at 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
Image from Mario official Nintendo siteWhile Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) positions it for sustained market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game franchises.
Nintendo's Switch is already a massive success, recently surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
Industry Growth on the Horizon
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slump, the industry is poised for renewed growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20x over the past three decades. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, driven by new products like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.
The gaming audience is also expanding, with projections exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of portable gaming, esports, and gaming influencers further fuels hardware sales growth across PCs and consoles.
